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Wednesday, July 29, 2020

NY City Metro well on its way to herd immunity: 2.8 million have antibodies created by 2.8 million "infections" as of 5/6/20 per CDC. Most never knew they were “infected,” may never have symptoms-Staten Island Advance

Great news for NY metro: Over 2.8 million in NY metro have Covid antibodies as of May 6, 2020, per CDC tests, quadruple the number in CDC NY metro test five weeks earlier:

Second NYC CDC test: April 25-May 6: 2,832,000 test “positive,” 23% of the population had coronavirus antibodies present in blood samples, [10 times higher than reported cases showed”] which is consistent with the timing of the outbreak throughout New York. The results also fell in line with a [NY] state-run survey that was conducted around the same time. Testing positive for antibodies means they’ve “been infected” at some time in the past, often without knowing it, having few or no symptoms, and may never have symptoms. "The results reported by the CDC are adjusted for false positive and false negative results."
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First NYC CDC test: March 23-April 1642,000 tested “positive” for Covid antibodies, about 7% of population, meaning persons had been “infected” sometime in the past, most not having experienced symptoms, and may never do so.
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Having 23% with antibodies as of May 6, NYC metro is well on its way to herd immunity. Since we’re now in late July, the percentage with antibodies is likely even higher. Wide acquisition of antibodies by healthy population is the only method guaranteed to stop a virus. The NY metro antibody success is amazing considering brute force government barriers put in the way of their creation, wittingly or not. We desperately need more “cases” and “positive tests” in order to achieve immunity. Instead, we’re erroneously led to believe the opposite, that each new “positive test” or “case” even among young, healthy people, is a horrible thing, death may be imminent. 2.8 million New Yorkers know that’s not so. 

Governments have no power over viruses. They’re not in the game. The only guaranteed killer of viruses is enough healthy individual human beings being exposed to the virus, fighting it off, and developing antibodies. Antibodies are created when the body fights an infection, such as Covid-19. This “fight” is how individuals develop immunity. Once the virus has said hello to the world, if enough average, healthy individuals, one by one, let the virus into their body and successfully fight it off, herd immunity is acquired and the virus ends.Infected” persons often experience no symptoms:

Sources: Two articles from Staten Island {NY) Advance, July 21 and April 27:

July 21, 2020,CDC data shows coronavirus infections far higher in NYC than reported cases indicated, Staten Island Advance, Joseph Ostapiuk, Staten Island, NY 

“Data published Tuesday [7/21] by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) showed that actual coronavirus (COVID-19) infections in New York City were at least 10 times higher than reported cases showed. 

The preliminary findings published by the CDC analyzed seroprevalence — the presence of a virus in a population based on blood samples — in 10 different cities and states, and found that actual numbers of people [with antibodies and with no symptoms] infected with the virus in this [NY metro] region was actually between two and 13 times higher than was previously confirmed through positive test results. 

The CDC data suggests that wide swaths of the population in these areas were asymptomatic or did not seek medical care....“Many of these people likely had no symptoms or mild illness and may have had no idea that they were infected.””…["The results reported by the CDC are adjusted for false positive and false negative results."]
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Added: NY metro acquired antibodies early: In April nearly 25% of New York City residents tested positive for coronavirus antibodies:

April 27, 2020, Latest coronavirus antibody testing shows nearly 25% positive in New York City, Staten Island Advance, Paul Liotta, Staten Island, NY 

Nearly 25% of New York City residents tested so far are positive for coronavirus antibodies, according to the latest data available from the state…. 

Cuomo has repeatedly pointed to antibody positives as a sign that people could begin to safely return to normal life. Most antibodies from coronavirus strains, including the four that cause the common cold, provide [at minimum] temporary immunity to those infected.
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Added: More about antibody testing: 

Coronavirus Antibody Testing,” WebMD.com

“What Is an Antibody Test? 

An antibody test is a screening for things called antibodies in your blood. Your body makes these when it fights an infection, like COVID-19. The same thing happens when you get a vaccine, like a flu shot. That’s how you build immunity to a virus. You may also hear it called a serology test. 

The antibody test isn’t checking for the virus itself. Instead, it looks to see whether your immune system — your body’s defense against illness — has responded to the infection.

How Does an Antibody Test Work?

A technician will take a bit of your blood, like through a finger prick. The test looks for one or both kinds of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19:

*IgM antibodies, which happen early in an infection
 *IgG antibodies, which are more likely to show up later 

Most people have IgG antibodies about 14 days after symptoms start. They usually stay in your blood long after the infection goes away, but we don’t know how long that is for the new coronavirus. 

What’s the Difference Between a Coronavirus Test and an Antibody Test? 

A coronavirus test, sometimes called a diagnostic test, looks for signs of active virus. It’s simpler and faster than an antibody test. But it tells you only if you have the virus in your body at the moment when you’re tested. An antibody test shows that you had the virus at some point in the past. It could be gone, or you could still be contagious.

Why Do We Need Antibody Testing? 

You could have SARS-CoV-2 and not know it. Not everyone who gets it has symptoms. Experts hope antibody tests can give health officials a better idea of how common the virus is. Once scientists know who has had the virus, they can find out how sick [if at all] it makes most people. And they can study what happens if people who’ve had it come into contact with it again. Along with other scientific information, this can help researchers understand who might be immune to the virus. 

The hope [fulfilled by 2.8 million New Yorkers] is that people with antibodies to COVID-19 can safely get back to work, and normal life, quicker…. Researchers are studying how antibodies in plasma donated by people who’ve recovered from COVID-19 might help those who are ill with the virus. Early research shows that this plasma may help sick people get better faster….

Are Antibody Tests Accurate?

Companies make their own claims about the accuracy of their antibody tests. Some say it’s up to 100%. Government researchers are studying how well the tests are working, but it’s too early to say for sure…. It’s important to note that some tests can mistake IgM antibodies from other coronaviruses, such as common cold strains, for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies….["The results reported by the CDC are adjusted for false positive and false negative results."]

What Do the Results Mean for You? 

If you test positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, it probably means you’ve had the virus. It’s also possible to get a “false positive” if you have antibodies but had a different kind of coronavirus. 
 
A positive result might mean you have some immunity to the coronavirus. It’s too early to know how strong it is or how long it might last. 
 
A negative result means you haven’t come into contact with the virus or you haven’t had it long enough to make antibodies. You could also have been exposed and not have antibodies. This is called a false negative. 
 
No matter the result, if you don’t have symptoms, you don’t need follow-up. But if you do, you might have a diagnostic test to look for signs of active virus.”…

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Thursday, July 23, 2020

Fauci's first pitch to open baseball season was off by order of magnitude




















7/23/20, “Dr. Anthony Fauci threw out the first pitch before the Nationals-Yankees game,” ESPN twitter

Two among comments:


Above, 7/23/20, “About as accurate as his predictions,” ESPN twitter


Above, 7/23/20, I am still waiting for the “15 within a couple of days to go down to zero.” ESPN twitter
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7/23/20, Yankees at Nationals
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Added: Fauci actually said this: 

“All models are just models,” Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, science adviser to the White House coronavirus task force, has said.When you get new data, you change them.” 4/18/20, New York Times, “The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead”


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Vin Scully: “If baseball starts up, we’ve got this thing beat and we can go about our lives....When baseball begins, that will be a sure sign that the country is slowly getting back on its feet.” LA Times, Plaschke, 3/22/20

"Scully says, we’ll know by the crack of the bat.

3/22/20, “Pull up a chair and listen to Vin Scully give a message of hope and optimism,” Bill Plaschke, LA Times

“We are surrounded by a cacophony of chaos, our lives filled with words of warning and dread and doom. 

I need a sound of spring. This being the formerly opening week of the postponed baseball season, I crave the melodious tones of the ballpark, the bunting, the hope.

So, what the heck, I call Vin Scully.

And, wouldn’t you know, he answers on the first ring.

“Hello Bill Plaschke, how are you?” he booms.

“I just wanted to hear your voice,” I say.

“Well, thank God it still works,” he says, laughing.

Scully, 92, has been out of the Dodgers broadcast booth for three seasons, yet his wonderfully spoken words still fill Dodger Stadium and the Dodgers airwaves in various promos and videos.

He still talks to us. We still listen to him. He can still connect and comfort in a manner unmatched by any other sports figure in this town’s history.

And, man, do we need some connecting and comforting.

“We’re like everybody else, we’re hunkered down,” says Scully, who is sheltering with wife Sandi in their Los Angeles home. “But for me, I’ve been hunkered down ever since we hung things up at the end of ‘16, I’m very accustomed to being at home …it’s that old line, if it wasn’t for doctor appointments we wouldn’t have a social life at all.”

Scully says he and Sandi are hanging tough, and that he’s amazed he feels fine.

“That’s remarkable right now, I guess because I’m pretty much excommunicado with anybody except on the phones,” he says.

But emotionally, he’s hurting through his quarantine like everyone else, in ways few thought they would ever be hurting.

“Once in a while one of our children can come over and visit … we have a pretty large master bedroom, so they can sit quite a few feet away just to say hello,” he says. “But there’s no hugging and kissing and nothing like that … we’re trying very hard to follow the rules … the kids are scared that they will bring in something that will just blow me away … it’s a very difficult time to go without hugs, you know?”

Scully does not remain melancholy for long. He is, remember, a believer in improbable years and impossible home runs. He reminds us that this country has endured and triumphed over great troubles. He knows from personal experience. Born in 1927 and growing up during the Great Depression, he has been part of that journey.

”Among other things I remember my mother would feed me something that would fill me up and didn’t cost very much, I remember having pancakes for dinner and a lot of spaghetti,” he says. “We didn’t have any money anyway … meat was hard to come by … we bit the bullet.”

But then, he says, “From depths of depression we fought our way through World War II, and if we can do that, we can certainly fight through this. I remember how happy and relieved and thrilled everybody was … when they signed the treaty with Japan, and the country just danced from one way or another. It’s the life of the world, the ups and downs, this is a down, we’re going to have to realistically accept it at what it is and we’ll get out of it, that’s all there is to it, we will definitely get out of it.”

Scully, as usual, says he tries not to focus on the gloom, but ponder the good.

“A lot of people will look at it, it might bring them closer to their faith, they might pray a little harder, a little longer, there might be other good things to come out of it,” he says. “And certainly, I think people are especially jumping at the opportunity to help each other, I believe that’s true, so that’s kind of heartwarming, with all of it, it brings out some goodness in people, and that’s terrific, that’s terrific.”

There will be no Dodger Stadium roars this week, but Scully says that sort of home-team rooting has been replaced by applause of a different sort.

“All those first responders, people putting their lives on the lines, and we’re cheering that they’ll score a touchdown or hit a home run, whatever phrase you want to use, so I’m sure there’s a lot of praying going on and I’m all for it,” he says.

When the crisis does begin to slow, Scully says, we’ll know by the crack of the bat. 

“If baseball starts up, we’ve got this thing beat and we can go about our lives, Scully says. “Baseball is not a bad thermometer, when baseball begins, whenever that is, that will be a sure sign that the country is slowly getting back on its feet.”

Scully says the schedule will be forever altered, but also could be forever memorable. 

“We’re not going to have a full season because this thing is burning up days like an express train,” he says. “But somewhere along the line, I hope and pray that baseball will start up, that will be so wonderful, that will be a rainbow afte r the storm, that, yeah, things are going to get better.”

Scully can’t wait for opening day, whenever that might be. He remembers his first opening day with the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1950 in Philadelphia like it was last week.

“It was opening day in Philadelphia and Don [Newcombe] was going to pitch, and I was going to do like, the fourth and the fifth innings, something like that … so I thought, oh, that’s exciting, Don had a great year in ‘49, he was very personable, we got along so very well, so I was thrilled that I would have the opportunity,” Scully says with a laugh. “And he was knocked out of the game before my inning came up. We always kidded ourselves about that for years.”

Sure enough, a check of the records shows that Newcombe was shelled in the first inning of a 9-1 Phillies victory. But, also for the record, it did nothing to dampen Scully’s enthusiasm for opening-day’s magic.

“I think it’s breathtaking, it’s emotional, it’s reverential in many ways, and it’s thoughtful,” he says of opening day. “When the anthem is playing and you’re standing up in the booth waiting to go on the air, and this big crowd is quiet listening to the anthem, and then when the anthem ends and the crowd’s noise bursts forth like some fountain that had just been released, like a gusher in an oil field … I get goose bumps from the top of my head to the bottom of my toes … there’s really almost nothing like it, except maybe getting married or having your first child.”

While the country sits at home in front of televisions waiting for the next opening day, Scully encourages everyone to slowly exhale and then — you know Vin — embrace your inner musical.

“I’m also playing a little psychology, I watched a favorite movie yesterday, ‘Music Man,’ Robert Preston, great, great musical,” he says. “Believe it or not, I dug out a copy that I had bought of ‘Singin’ in the Rain,’ I think we’ll watch that.”

If Scully could offer one piece of wisdom during these dark times, it’s that, truly, we need to sing in the rain.

“If I had to be stranded on a desert island and I was allowed to take one movie, it would be ‘Singin’ in the Rain,’ because, I would hope the whole world would watch that, because it’s so charming, so heartwarming, so optimistic,” he says. “You can’t watch ‘Singin’ in the Rain’ without singing along, humming along, watching Gene Kelly dance on the edge of the gutter and splash in the water … I think that’s what people should do, try to find the happiest movie they can.”

I just wanted to hear that voice. I ended up hearing so much more. If Vin Scully says there’s a rainbow out there somewhere, well, I’m going to start looking.”

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Thursday, July 09, 2020

Suzyn Waldman Nominated For Radio Hall Of Fame Class of 2020-WFAN

"WFAN may soon have another Hall of Famer in its ranks.
The Radio Hall of Fame announced its 2020 nominees on Thursday, and WFAN’s New York Yankees analyst, Suzyn Waldman, has been nominated in the Longstanding Network/Syndication (20 years or more) category for her work on the New York Yankees Radio Network.
Waldman is one of 24 total nominees over six categories, and was tabbed in her category along with [the late] NPR Political Reporter Cokie Roberts, WOR Radio Network host Joey Reynolds, and Sounds of Sinatra host Sid Mark.
This is the second straight year Waldman has been nominated, earning a nod in 2019 in the Spoken Word On-Air Personality category. From WFAN’s release last year:
In 1987, Waldman was the first live voice heard after WFAN, the first all-sports radio station in the country, launched, and she became a mainstay on the station for 15 years. A midday host and beat reporter for the Yankees and Knicks on WFAN, Waldman won countless awards, including New York Sportscaster of the Year in 1996, the American Women in Radio and TV Star award in 1999, the Alliance for Women in Media Lifetime Achievement Award in 2015, the prestigious Gracie Award in 2016 and the International Radio Award in 1989 for her live reporting from the upper deck of Candlestick Park during the San Francisco earthquake.
Voting for Waldman’s category begins on Monday, July 13, and will be conducted via online voting service Votem with confidential ballots cast by industry professionals. Should Waldman be inducted, she will become the second active WFAN on-air personality in the Radio Hall of Fame, as Mike Francesa was also inducted in 2018.
The Radio Hall of Fame announced in their release that due to COVID-19 health and safety concerns, the 2020 induction ceremony will be a live radio broadcast from multiple locations this October, with more information (including the exact date and the inductees) to be revealed later this summer."[above image from WFAN.com]
"Follow Lou DiPietro on Twitter: @LouDiPietroWFAN"

Added: Upcoming Yankee exhibition games:









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