"Organized crime groups...use the energy sector to progress further towards respectability."...
(page 3), "Around the world
and more specifically in the EU, concerns have been raised regarding future energy availability, particularly levels of dependence on hydrocarbon imports (oil and gas). At the same time, strategic intelligence analysis indicates that
In the Strategy for Europol 2010-2014,
- organised crime groups are involved in energy supply to the EU and within EU Member States (MS).
the Organisation has committed itself to “scan the
environment for new developments in internal security threats”. With this in mind,
- Europol has carried out a scenario management exercise
- to examine the possible future involvement of
A timeframe of ten years has
- organised crime in energy supply....
been set for the exercise, with the focus on interaction between Organised Crime and the energy sector
in 2020. Narratives have been drafted on the basis of plausible features within this timeframe. A questionnaire on both the current situation and future developments was sent to selected experts from MS law enforcement, the EU Commission, academia and the private energy sector. Analysis of these enabled the identification of
- Since the future is essentially uncertain, consideration of uncertainty is key to scenario building.
(page 4): During the workshop, the following uncertainties were identified as the most critical:
- Geopolitics and security of supply
Security of supply
- “Respectabilisation” of crime
and price volatility are considered to be the two uncertainties with the
largest impact on the energy future and the greatest levels of uncertainty, and as such form
the axes on which the scenarios are plotted. A high level of price volatility
correlates with a
world of unplanned responses and inconsistent regulation,
while a low level of price volatility correlates with planned responses and more consistent regulation.
which are key factors
- Organised Crime’s drive for respectability and lifestyle change are nevertheless considered to be cross-cutting issues (page 4 bottom)
in the possible futures described, and therefore serve to flesh out the narratives....
play the markets for short-term opportunities, profit from price/tax differences
- EU and other Organised Crime (OC) groups see energy as a safe long term investment,
- and voluntary changes in consumer lifestyles, and
Key Organised Crime (OC) opportunities:
- use the energy sector to progress further towards respectability....(p. 6)
In cases where supply companies experience high levels of OC (organized crime) infiltration, governments and the EU increasingly rely on “deals with the devil” (page 7) - e.g.
- OC profits from energy speculation – profitable money laundering
- Emissions Trade Fraud (ETF) and other emerging markets
- Increased infiltration of energy companies by means of investment
- Corruption of private sector to maximise short-term investment opportunities
- Leading role in investment in renewables, thanks to lower capital costs...
- bilateral agreements with
- partners infiltrated by OC,
Measures to reduce
- further legitimising OC interests. (p. 7)
emissions are driven by the prospect of profit rather than by climate change concerns:
- “cap and trade” gains strength because of an already established trade in carbon credits and a market for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS);
in the absence of requisite regulation, this is accompanied by an increase in Emissions Trade Fraud (ETF).... (p. 7)
p. 8, "Since the EU market
remains open both to foreign direct investment and to
acquisitions by foreign energy supply companies, OC groups
based within and outside the EU
have the opportunity to act as shareholders and suppliers respectively.
Both eventualities afford OC (organized crime)
and opportunities to exercise power in commercial decision making.
- greater control and influence over the legitimate economy,
Outside of the EU,
- Fossil fuel insecurity persists
private companies compete with local governments to exploit remaining
fossil fuel reserves, including those – such as unconventional gas or shale oil – made profitable
or accessible through technological developments. In cases where supply companies experience OC infiltration,
- this leads to increased OC influence over fossil fuel production. (p. 8)
Ultimately, competition for resources leads in some source areas to tension between
governments and international energy supply companies, and the re-nationalisation of
dwindling fossil fuel reserves. In this event, such actions push the future towards the “Open
Because on the whole
EU energy supply is not yet self-sufficient, it remains vulnerable to
disruption by non-state actors, with a potential impact on price levels. Whilst disruption can be achieved by means of terrorist activity (e.g. damage to oil pipelines)
equally this vulnerability presents
- OC groups with opportunities to disrupt supply in order to affect price levels,
- thereby deriving increased profit on investments....
by default OC (organized crime) will be a leading player in renewable energy supply,
- Beyond 2020, the implications of this are that
(page 10, top)
- on which the EU will become increasingly dependent as remaining fossil fuel reserves dwindle.
The dominant legislative
feature of this world is an absence of effective regulation of the energy and financial sectors, or more specifically, prevailing self-regulation,
Since the geopolitical
- a situation reinforced by a comparative lack of law enforcement knowledge of these sectors.
and economic factors provide fertile ground for OC infiltration of the energy sector,
- self-regulation serves to facilitate concealment of OC activity...p. 10
(p. 10): Eventually, however
, a more consistent focus on asset recovery by governments, and the desire of energy companies to know and manage the expectations of their shareholders, lead to the introduction of tighter controls on investments, e.g. to determine the origin of
investments in the energy sector,
- and legislation throughout the EU against money laundering.
As prices continue to fluctuate, speculation on energy futures comes under particular scrutiny
in an attempt to encourage stability. Additionally, there develops a greater focus on corporate criminal liability, in response to the
Legislation to protect
- effects of OC infiltration of energy supply companies.
the environment from damage related to energy production and supply is an afterthought....
As the amount of lost revenue and the level of OC influence on private companies become apparent,
additional funding for law enforcement,
- the tendency for transnational OC investigations to follow money trails leads to prioritisation at both national and international levels of financial investigation and money laundering cases, incentivised in some countries by the prospect of
as provided for in Proceeds of Crime legislation.... (p. 10, bottom)
- (p. 11): "Prominent and well-funded OC (organized crime) groups enjoy more power
as a result of a lack of cooperation between MS (member states), increased competition for vital resources and reduced success in controlling their activities....
- and receive more social acceptance
Private citizens subject to higher prices, a lower quality of life and
come into increasing proximity with OC, through direct involvement in criminal activity, purchasing fuel and other goods from the black market, or indeed looking
- "Greater public acceptance of criminality (p.14, bottom)
In this society, outages and brown-outs are a reality, and low-level criminals take
advantage of the cover of darkness to engage in looting and robbery. (page 15)
fuelled by feelings of insecurity and isolation, and tensions between resident and migrant communities: national and local law enforcement, meanwhile, are subject to the same cuts in expenditure as other government services and
- to OC groups for security.
Street policing is increasingly conducted by private security firms, and OC groups are instrumental in keeping the peace and communities safe. At its worst, this manifests as
- are less able to respond effectively.
- racketeering, with OC profiting from threats of violence."...(page 15)
10/8/10: ""Governments should start preparing for an onslaught of environmental court cases,"
said Bakary Kante, head of the United Nations Environment Programme's environmental law division. "...
The media isn't the main problem after all. It's organized crime. ed.
Labels: Europol, Organized crime using climate industry to achieve social acceptabilty