Thursday, January 27, 2011

No .299 hitter has ever walked on his last at-bat of the season-'Scorecasting' author

1/26/11, The "Scorecasting " authors were interviewed Wednesday, 1/26, on Leonard Lopate's show on WNYC radio, the Manhattan NPR station about scoring in various sports including baseball. From the transcript draft: "You looked at something else John, you studied 299 hitters vs 300 hitters in Major League Baseball while we are looking for there. Well -- understand where we look at..."

" We buy 99 cent -- 9909...same sort of bias that same tendency towards the round number. Also applies to hits... Of colleague of Toby that...what we felt that there are many many more batters....hit 300 vs 299 sort of artificial benchmarks applies in sports as well...

" Well basically if it's totally even the number of 299 and 300... until essentially the last game of the season and even really the last at bat of the season what happens is. Is that someone batting in the last game of the seasons and as they get a hit the puts them over 300 invariably taken out of the game. And the ones that haven't got that hit stay in long enough to get it..."

" ...the most amazing stat I think that. I remember coming across is that in the last at bat of the season. A 299. Hitter has never walked. Never -- once. 99 here it is they're just they're hell or high water they're gonna sleep when they're gonna make contact in whatever happens happens but they're not gonna get that block is obvious that doesn't count their average but you come to the conclusion that

  • 299 hitters may be more valuable than 300 meters."

" They could be because what we find is that the reason these guys -- for the for the 300 mark is that they're paid for if you see in subsequent contracts they get additional money for. But if you look at what's actually happening there really no different -- 299 -- is really a matter of luck with the -- not.

  • And so you could argue that the 299 hitters are bargain price and that's sort --"
"... and surprisingly -- and people have these these benchmarks and mindedness that seems to convey value. Which is -- this is not just a sports issue.""...
  • ---------------
"Scorecasting on WNYC: "University of Chicago behavioral economist Tobias Moscowitz and veteran Sports Illustrated writer L. Jon Wertheim reveal the hidden forces that shape how basketball, baseball, football, and hockey games are played, won, and lost. Their book Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won overturns some of the most cherished truisms of sports—from home-field advantage, to the biased umpires exhibit, to the myth of the "hot hand" in sports."
  • (Note: The website states that the draft is rough and may not be 100% accurate, but I heard the part about the .299 batter never walking on his last at bat, so that part of the transcript is accurate. ed.)


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