Yankees Core Four will crumble-Nate Silver

"If Nate Silver is correct, both the Democratic Party and the New York Yankees might be headed for tough times this fall. The ace political pollster/baseball analyst projects the numbers for 1,600 major league ballplayers in the current Baseball Prospectus 2010, and things don't look good for the Yankees' "Core Four." Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera average out at 38 years of age, and

• no team in the major leagues is anywhere near as dependent on four aging players as the Yankees are.

Based on the study of hundreds of players in their declining years, Silver projects these slides for the Yanks' elders in 2010:

• Jeter from a 2009 batting average of .334 to .286 this year, a drop in home runs from 18 to 11, and in stolen bases from 30 to 10. Posada from a .285 BA to .263, home runs from 22 to 12. Pettitte from 14-8 and an ERA of 4.06 to 10-11 and 4.70.
• Scariest of all, Rivera from 44 saves to 22, and and ERA the moves from 1.76 to 3.53.

If Silver is right, the 2010 Yankees are sunk. Worse yet, Steinbrenner and Cashman seem to have no plans for how to replace the Core Four....

• If Jeter, Posada, and Pettitte decline as sharply as players their age have in the past,

• Mo's role will be less important -- he'll have fewer games to save. "

"Yankees prospects look grim--star pollster Nate Silver," Village Voice blogs by Allen Barra, 3/18/10

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