Mariano Rivera could be greatest relief pitcher to date, Dr. Michael Hoban, 12/26/07

From Dr. Michael Hoban's 2007 book, "Baseball's Best: The True Hall of Famers" is,

• "Chapter Eleven: Two Special Categories of Pitchers."

"There are some pitchers for one reason or another will not have pitched enough innings to qualify for 300 win shares or 235 NEWS but who seem to have had very impressive careers."...

• The first covers those with "fewer than 2400 innings and with a NEWS score of 180 or better," such as Addie Joss, Sandy Koufax, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Dizzy Dean.

The second covers those with fewer than 1700 innings and with a NEWS score of 150 or better.

• "The 150/1700 Standard-The True Relievers"

"Now, what about the true relief pitchers, that is, those who had very few (or no) starts and spent the bulk of their careers in relief? Is there any way that we can arrive at a fair standard for HOF induction for these pitchers based strictly on the numbers? Of course, we need a tough standard that only the truly outstanding relievers will meet.

Most relief pitchers will come nowhere near the 2400 innings that we just used in the previous category. After having examined the numbers, I would suggest that if a relief pitcher with less than 1700 innings pitched has attained a NEWS score of 150, then he should be seriously considered for the Hall of Fame. (Keep in mind that

• all players have to have played ten seasons in the major leagues).

Let's take a look at some relief pitchers to see how this would work. Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter are two relief pitchers who are in the Hall of Fame. Here are their numbers...

Player	IP	CWS	CV	NEWS
Bruce Sutter	1042	168	163	164
Rollie Fingers	1701	188	144	155

In pitching 1701 innings, Fingers was actually one inning over the cut-off. But I prefer not to nit-pick this one and include him in this group. It appears likely (because of how relievers are used now) that no other relief pitcher will ever reach the 1700-innings mark again.

For comparison purposes, here are a few other well-known relief pitchers and their NEWS scores.

Player	IP	CWS	CV	NEWS
Mariano Rivera	953	190	170	175
Lee Smith	1289	198	152	164
Bruce Sutter	1042	168	163	164
Dan Quisenberry	1043	157	155	156
Rollie Fingers	1701	188	144	155
Billy Wagner	771	152	143	145
John Franco	1246	183	128	142
Trevor Hoffman	942	167	133	142

Mariano Rivera, Dan Quisenberry and Lee Smith all have a NEWS score above 150. And they are the only relief pitchers that I have found (other than those in the Hall) who have done this. Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner were still active in 2007 and may yet reach the 150 NEWS benchmark. As you can see, at this point in his career, Mo Rivera is way ahead of the HOF standard and could emerge as the greatest relief pitcher to date.

Summary

Using the NEWS HOF Gauge, I am suggesting that there are four ways that a pitcher can establish HOF numbers:

1. A NEWS score of 235.

2. 300 career win shares

3. A NEWS score of 180 with less than 2400 innings pitched.

4. A NEWS score of 150 with less than 1700 innings pitched."...

• -------------------------------

12/26/07, from Dr. Hoban, "A Short Career, the Pitchers," Seamheads.com

The NEWS HOF Gauge recognizes two small groups of pitchers as having HOF numbers even though they did not reach the NEWS criterion of 235 for a starting pitcher.

Source: Seamheads.com (http://s.tt/12yLZ)"As you can see, at this point in his career, Mo Rivera is way ahead of the HOF standard and could emerge as the greatest relief pitcher to date."Dr. Hoban's new book, "Baseball's Best, The True Hall of Famers," covers relief pitchers in Chapter 11. It incorporates his "NEWS" analysis tool which among other stats recognizes Win Shares: "The 150/1700 standard – The true relievers

• "There are only five pitchers in the 20^th century who have attained a NEWS score of 150 while pitching in fewer than 1700 innings. These are the true relievers who have definite HOF numbers. Here they are:

Player	IP	NEWS
Mariano Rivera	953	175
Lee Smith	1289	164
Bruce Sutter	1042	164
Dan Quisenberry	1043	156
Rollie Fingers	1701	155

Rollie Fingers just makes it since he actually pitched in 1701 innings. Only Bruce Sutter and Fingers are in the Hall of Fame.

• This would seem to imply that Mariano Rivera is the best true reliever of the century....

You will note that Trevor Hoffman (the “saves” leader) is not on this list. His NEWS score is 142."...

• For more info on the NEWS HOF Gauge, see BASEBALL’S BEST: The TRUE Hall of Famers on this site."

From Seamheads.com blog, 12/26/07"

• A short bio on Michael Hoban on The Baseball Guru.

(I was directed to this work by another blog, Sean Lahman's Seamhead.com on which he has a chart of Dr. Hoban's work. Seamhead.com posts Dr. Hoban's results. ed.)

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