Fantasy Baseball: Don't Ditch April Duds--New York Times

Filed at 7:22 p.m. ET

"I received an unexpected gift this past weekend. An owner in one of my leagues, a Denver Post sports writer who knows his stuff, offered me Yankees closer Mariano Rivera for Pirates outfielder Chris Duffy.

• I had to read the e-mail several times before I could believe it. Granted, Rivera was awful in the first month of the season, with an ERA over 10.00 and two blown saves in three chances.

But this is Rivera, the most reliable closer of the past decade-plus. And I could have him for Duffy, who isn't bad and will steal 30 bases but is by no means a superstar.

• In an e-mail a few days later, he explained himself, saying he needed stolen bases right away. Fair enough. Duffy is one of the 15-20 best base stealers in the game.

However, the owner also said this: ''I'm sure I could have gotten more value a month or two later.''

Yes.

• This is the problem with trading low. In the case of Rivera, it's only one of the issues, because he's bound to return to form and save 30-plus games. He's simply worth more than Duffy, but it's easy to get impatient and make quick moves you'll later regret.

I know. I dropped shortstop Troy Tulowitzki when his average was under .200, deciding he wasn't ready. Had I waited a week, I would have seen him start to put it all together. He's a future All-Star, likely to hit 15-20 home runs this season.

• So hold on to your April duds. In fact, collect them. A star hitting .196 with one homer (Carlos Delgado) through Wednesday will outperform Ian Kinsler (.302-9-23) over the final five months. Can you imagine Delgado not hitting 20 homers? Me neither. That means

19 are still unaccounted for:

------ READY FOR LIFTOFF--Soriano, Sheffield, Wright, Atkins, Shealy, Crisp, Pence."

From AP story, NY Times, 5/3/07, "Fantasy Baseball--Don't Ditch April Duds."

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