Florida population decline first in 63 years

Tax revenues and population continue to drop in Florida, a state that keeps hoping to find customers for baseball games. And counting on non-existent taxes to pay for new stadiums. New figures show a decrease from April '08 to April '09 of 58,000 people. (The study did not release how many people actually moved out of Florida or are trying to). Study from University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

• (AP) 8/17/09: "Florida's population has declined for the first time in 63 years, state researchers said Monday as they blamed the recession for plunging tax revenues and a steep drop
• in new residents.

The decline — 58,000 people over the past year — is the first since large numbers of military personnel left the state in 1946 after World War II.... Florida's unemployment rate was 10.6 percent in June, the highest level since 1975.

• The state has lost 392,800 jobs during the past year, continuing a decline that began in 2007, the Agency for Workforce Innovation said.

The population estimates were produced using data from residential electric hookups, building permits and homestead exemptions, (University of Florida's Stan) Smith said. The university is expected to release details of city and county populations Wednesday.

• Florida's population is about 18.3 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau....

• The study did not measure the number of people leaving Florida....

The population drop has left empty seats in classrooms. The state's estimated public school enrollment for 2009-10 is down 28,541 from the previous school year, according to the Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research."...********

• (St. Petersburg Times, 8/13/09): "Some in Florida whose economic well-being relies on the next new resident, and then the next new resident, will lament. They are cities, developers, power companies, public school systems and, yes, newspapers that need new blood in order to expand.

St. Petersburg's Progress Energy Florida, in its second-quarter report, said it lost 8,000 customers. And Miami-based Florida Power & Light reported a decline of 16,000 in the same period ended June 30.

• That's 24,000 fewer Florida households just between those two utilities.

What else is driving the moving van departures? Surely those here who are "underwater" because they owe more on their homes than they can be sold for.

• Bankers call it negative equity. It is plague in the state.

In Miami-Dade and Broward counties, 47 percent of all single-family homeowners were underwater as of June 30. In the Tampa Bay area, that percentage is lower.

• But even nationally, 23 percent, or more than one in every five, of single-family homes with mortgages are underwater, according to Zillow Real Estate Market Reports.

Discouraged by years of falling home prices and the prospect of making hefty payments on an increasingly worthless asset,

• many Florida residents are walking away from their debts. Or they are trying to hold on, often face foreclosure, then leave."..."Challenges big for Florida as Exodus no longer Anecdotal," by Robert Trigaux

Attendance at Rays games is greatly affected by these issues. In much of what I've heard, it sounds like prognosticators didn't take these factors into account and still don't. (sm)

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