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Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Rise & Shout---"SAVES, NOT CLOSERS CAN BE OVERRATED." Rob Hurtt

Thank you, Rob Hurtt--you're unique. You haven't bought the ESPN, etc. hype about "Joe Schmoe is better because he has MORE SAVES." A closer NEEDS MUCH MORE THAN THAT TO BE BETTER. (Perhaps Rob is confident in himself and isn't a moron. He knows THERE ARE VAST DIFFERENCES AMONG SO-CALLED 'SAVES' (aside from a manager who CAN'T AFFORD TO HAND OUT "COOKIES:)" The pitcher:
  • enters with bases empty, bottom 9th, 2 outs, and a 3 run lead, gets final out= A SAVE
  • enters with 2 runners on, top 8th, 1 out, 1 run lead, gets final 5 outs= A SAVE
  • If you're looking for more work from ESPN, etc., have mental problems, are an alcoholic or drug abuser, or just have no conscience, you may say, "Oh, it's not that big a deal." Really? Then please answer this: If it's not a big deal, why don't all the closers do the 2nd version of the above SAVE examples?
Rob Hurtt in his Sporting News column (or blog) says as follows: "I firmly believe that anyone who does baseball mock drafts in January/early February either knows their stuff or has a horrible sickness. I must have been drafting with the sickos then.
  • How else can you explain stud closers Billy Wagner and Mariano Rivera falling into the sixth round? One drafter claimed closers are overrated. He said he couldn't pass up hitters who would hit 35 homers... for a "one-category player."
(He could find a 35-save closer in the middle rounds, or maybe he would get lucky and add this year's J.J. Putz from the wire during the season).
  • I almost agree with him on one of those points. Saves, not closers, can be overrated. But that doesn't apply if you're looking at a stud reliever who also will post an ERA below 2.00. Those closers are not one-category guys, despite what some people think about the limited impact of 70-75 innings of relief.

Let's say your pitching staff, excluding your top closer, allows 520 runs in 1300 innings (3.60 ERA). With Mariano Rivera in 2006 (15 runs in 75 innings), that ERA drops to 3.50.

  • With Bobby Jenks (31 runs in 69.2 innings), it rises to 3.62. That's a difference of .12 points in ERA from just one spot. Is that overrated?
From Rob Hurtt's Sporting News blog, 2/6/07, "Who are you calling a one-category player?"

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